Friday, October 30, 2009

SEC Football Online's Free Sportbook...Miss State vs Kentucky

Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-5 SU, 4-3 ATS) at Kentucky Wildcats (4-3 SU & ATS)
Saturday, October 31 - 7 PM ET
SEC Football Online Odds: KENTUCKY -3.5, Our Pick Mississippi State +3.5
Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
MSU has covered four of its last six games
MSU has lost four of its last five games SU
MSU has covered three of its last ten road games
MSU has lost eight of its last ten road games SU
MSU has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
KY has covered two of its last six home games
KY has won 16 of its last 24 home games SU
KY has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total
Also...
KY has won five of the last seven meetings SU
Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
KY has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team
Although they don't have a lot of "W's" to put on their ledger, these two teams aren't doing that badly in the NCAA football odds, and seem to have made some progress lately. The MSU Bulldogs had a lot of work to do, and they put things in the hands of Dan Mullen, the former offensive coordinator at the University of Florida. Mullen has his team playing hard; they barely missed out on a win when LSU put in a furious goal-line stand against them back on September 26. They were competitive with Georgia Tech before losing a wild one by a 42-31 score; they took things down to the wire with Houston, which was nationally-ranked, and fought all the way against Florida last week, losing 29-19 and intercepting Tim Tebow twice.
Anthony Dixon had a streak of five straight 100-yard games broken against Florida's rock-ribbed defense last week, but on the season he is still averaging five yards a carry and is 15th in the nation's rushing statistics. He also brings some veteran presence to the table. So does Tyson Lee; however, Lee is not a talented enough quarterback at this time to run Mullen's spread the way he wants it run. With three TD passes and nine interceptions and only 163 net rushing yards, he's more of the problem than the solution.
The Mississippi State defense has been vulnerable to explosive offenses, and that has accounted for its losses in the NCAA football odds, but Kentucky isn't a team that has one. The SEC Rocks!

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