Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida GatorsKick-off: 3:30 pm EST
NCAAF Odds: Florida -24
Analysis: The Florida State Seminoles haven’t had a very good 2009. With a victory over the Florida Gators, however, they no doubt would get a bowl bid. They still might because with 6 wins they are bowl eligible.
The problem, of course, is that the Seminoles aren’t going to beat the Gators. Could they keep it close, though? Maybe. The Seminoles lost to the Gators by 30 points in last year’s Florida vs. Florida State game but that Gators’ team is better than this one. This Gators’ team has been susceptible to blowing games against the spread.
In fact, Florida is only 5 and 5 ATS. They’ve lost against the spread to Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Florida has gone 4 and 5 ATS in their last 9 games.
The Seminoles don’t usually beat spreads, but 24 points is a lot for what some might consider a rivalry game. The Seminoles haven’t been that great against the spread but they have been pretty good straight-up going 4 and 1 in their last 5 games.
Another thing to consider is the fact that the Gators have something else to play for down the road, the SEC and BCS Championships and probably aren’t going to be that fired up to beat up on old Bobby Bowden and the poor Florida State Seminoles. After getting a 17 point lead, Urban Meyer might call off the dogs and let Tim Tebow just stay out of trouble. That’s what I would do with Alabama and possibly TCU or Texas looming in the BCS title game.
All of it adds up to a Seminole victory against the spread.
Pick: Florida State
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